World Cup Forecasting Challenge For Quants
databuff writes:
“As a break from projecting the strength of subprime mortgages, credit default swaps, and other obscure financial instruments, quantitative analysts at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, and Danske Bank have modeled the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Now Kaggle has set up a forecasting competition, allowing statisticians to go head-to-head with these corporate giants. The challenge is to predict how far each country will progress in the tournament.”
… and ouch:
Worse than that, JP Morgan picked Slovenia to finish fourth. Ahead of teams like Germany and Slovenia. …that’s basically how credit default swaps work.